Lagos Poster

Poster promoting the Lagos lectur

Asset prices, liquidity, and monetary policy in the search theory of money

I present a search-based model in which money coexists with equity shares on a risky aggregate endowment. Agents can use equity as a means of payment, so shocks to equity prices translate into aggregate liquidity shocks that disrupt the mechanism of exchange. I characterize a family of optimal monetary policies, and find that the resulting equity prices are independent of monetary considerations. I also study monetary policies that target a constant, but nonzero, nominal interest rate, and find that to the extent that a financial asset is valued as a means to facilitate transactions, the asset’s real rate of return will include a liquidity return that depends on monetary considerations. Through this liquidity channel, persistent deviations from an optimal monetary policy can cause the real prices of assets that can be used to relax trading constraints to exhibit persistent deviations from their fundamental values.

Inside and outside money

A distinction is drawn between outside money - money that is either of a fiat nature or backed by some asset that is not in zero net supply within the private sector - and inside money, which is an asset backed by any form of private credit that circulates as a medium of exchange.Money

Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy

I develop an asset-pricing model in which financial assets are valued for their liquidity - the extent to which they are useful in facilitating exchange - as well as for being claims to streams of consumption goods. The implications for average asset returns, the equity-premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle, are explored in a version of the model that nests the work of Mehra and Prescott (1985).Asset pricing ; Liquidity (Economics)

Liquidity in asset markets with search frictions

We develop a search-theoretic model of financial intermediation and use it to study how trading frictions affect the distribution of asset holdings, asset prices, efficiency, and standard measures of liquidity. A distinctive feature of our theory is that it allows for unrestricted asset holdings, so market participants can accommodate trading frictions by adjusting their asset positions. We show that these individual responses of asset demands constitute a fundamental feature of illiquid markets: they are a key determinant of bid-ask spreads, trade volume, and trading delays - all the dimensions of market liquidity that search-based theories seek to explain. ; This paper is an extension of Ricardo Lagos's work while he was in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.Liquidity (Economics) ; Search theory

A model of job and worker flows

We develop a model of gross job and worker flows and use it to study how the wages, permanent incomes, and employment status of individual workers evolve over time. Our model helps explain various features of labor markets, such as the amount of worker turnover in excess of job reallocation, the length of job tenures and unemployment duration, and the size and persistence of the changes in income that workers experience due to displacements or job-to-job transitions. We also examine the effects that labor market institutions and public policy have on the gross flows, as well as on the resulting wage distribution and employment in the equilibrium. From a theoretical standpoint, we propose a notion of competitive equilibrium for random matching environments, and study the extent to which it achieves an efficient allocation of resources.Labor market ; Labor turnover ; Labor mobility

Inflation, output, and welfare

This paper studies the effects of anticipated inflation on aggregate output and welfare within a search-theoretic framework. We allow money-holders to choose the intensities with which they search for trading partners, so inflation affects the frequency of trade as well as the quantity of output produced in each trade. We consider the standard pricing mechanism for search models, i.e., ex-post bargaining, as well as a notion of competitive pricing. If prices are bargained over, the equilibrium is generically inefficient and an increase in inflation reduces buyers’ search intensities, output, and welfare. If prices are posted and buyers can direct their search, search intensities are increasing with inflation for low inflation rates and decreasing for high inflation rates. The Friedman rule achieves the first best allocation and inflation always reduces welfare even though it can have a positive effect on output for low inflation rates.Inflation (Finance)

Liquidity in asset markets with search frictions

We develop a search-theoretic model of financial intermediation and use it to study how trading frictions affect the distribution of asset holdings, asset prices, efficiency and standard measures of liquidity. A distinctive feature of our theory is that it allows for unrestricted asset holdings, so market participants can accommodate trading frictions by adjusting their asset positions. We show that these individual responses of asset demands constitute a fundamental feature of illiquid markets: they are a key determinant of bid-ask spreads, trade volume and trading delays—all the dimensions of market liquidity that search-based theories seek to explain.Liquidity (Economics) ; Over-the-counter markets ; Investments

A Model of Job and Worker Flows

We develop a model of gross job and worker flows and use it to study how the wages, permanent incomes and employment status of individual workers evolve over time and how they are affected by aggregate labor market conditions. Our model helps explain various other features of labor markets, such as the size and persistence of the changes in income that workers experience due to displacements or job-to-job transitions, the length of job tenures and unemployment duration, and the amount of worker turnover in excess of job reallocation. We also examine the effects that labor market institutions and public policy have on the gross flows, as well as on the resulting wage distribution, employment and aggregate output in the equilibrium. From a theoretical point of view, we study the extent to which the competitive equilibrium achieves an efficient allocation of resources.

Money and capital as competing media of exchange

We construct a model where capital competes with fiat money as a medium of exchange, and we establish conditions on fundamentals under which fiat money can be both valued and socially beneficial. When the socially efficient stock of capital is too low to provide the liquidity agents need, they overaccumulate productive assets to use as media of exchange. When this is the case, there exists a monetary equilibrium that dominates the nonmonetary one in terms of welfare. Under the Friedman Rule, fiat money provides just enough liquidity so that agents choose to accumulate the same capital stock a social planner would.Capital ; Liquidity (Economics)